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In this study, you will play the role of "forestry manager". There are various kinds of plants growing in the forest. Your task is to find out if there is a causal relationship between particular pairs of plants (e.g. some Plant A and Plant B), To do this, you will observe how the number of both types of plant varies over time.

The quantity of Plant A, is always controlled by the forestry commision.

However quantity of Plant B is not controlled by the forestry commission. Plant B might or might not be influenced by the quantity of Plant A and this influence could also be either positive or negative.

(how the number of a type of plant varies over time)

If Plant A and B have a positive (regular) relationship, we would expect that:

* If the quantity of Plant A increases, it will cause an increase in the quantity of Plant B,

* OR equally if the quantity of Plant A decreases, it will cause a decrease in the quantity of Plant B.

If Plant A and B have a negative (inverse) relationship, we would expect that:

* If the quantity of Plant A increases, it will cause a decrease in the quantity of Plant B,

* OR equally if the quantity of Plant A decreases, it will cause an increase in the quantity of Plant B.

If Plant A has no causal influence on Plant B we would expect increases or decreases in Plant A to have no relationship with any increases or decreases in Plant B.

Importantly, in order to figure out the relationship, you have to think through both A and B. It is impossible to tell the relationship by focusing on just one kind of plants. For example, if the number of Plant B decreases, the relationship could be positive (regular), negative (inverse), or indifferent. It should further depend on whether A increases or decreases.

Here is a video example of how the quantities of a kind of plant might vary over time:

For this task, the locations, colors, and shapes of plants are irrelevant. To be a good forestry manager, you only need to focus on the QUANTITY of each plant.

You will observe16 completely different pairs of plants. In each case, Plant A is controlled by the forestry commission and you just have to judge whether Plant A has:

(1) A positive (regular) causal influence on Plant B OR

(2) a negative (inverse) causal influence no Plant B OR

(3) no casual relationship with Plant B

Do not worry if the task feels difficult at first. We are curious about people's intuitions in making causal judgments so just give your best guess 👍

Comprehension check: To make sure you understand the instructions, now please indicate whether each of the following statements is true or false.

Well done, you got all the questions correct!

You are now ready to start the task!

Unfortunately, you didn't answer all of the comprehension check questions correctly.

Please have another close look at the instructions and work out whether those statements are correct or false.

How did you work out the relationship between plants? What did you find particularly easy/hard? Did you have a strategy, if so what was it? Did you spot any bugs or errors?

Please answer the following questions about yourself to complete the experiment:

1. Age *: years

2. Gender *: Female Male non binary I'd prefer not to respond